Entry:
Davis, James A., "The Predictability of Social Change: Evidence from the GSS," Paper presented to the Conference on Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences, Boulder, June, 1984.
Abstract:
Trends in American society seem quite predictable: five to ten years from now will be much the same as the present except that the levels of about half the key GSS variables will have shifted five to ten points. It is fairly easy to make short-run forecasts using simple mechanical extrapolation but difficult using the simplest multi-variate models.
GSS Years:ACT: Trends in American society seem quite predictable: five to ten years from now will be much the same as the present except that the levels of about half the key GSS variables will have shifted five to ten points. It is fairly easy to make short-run forecasts using simple mechanical extrapolation but difficult using the simplest multi-variate models.
Other Data Sets:
Census 1972, 1974, 1976, 1978, 1980
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GSS Codebook Variables referenced by document: |
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Variable Name |
Variable Label |
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| ABNOMORE |
MARRIED--WANTS NO MORE CHILDREN |
| ABRAPE |
PREGNANT AS RESULT OF RAPE |
| ADULTS |
HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS 18 YRS AND OLDER |
| AGE |
AGE OF RESPONDENT |
| AGED |
SHOULD AGED LIVE WITH THEIR CHILDREN |
| ANOMIA5 |
LOT OF THE AVERAGE MAN GETTING WORSE |
| ANOMIA6 |
NOT FAIR TO BRING CHILD INTO WORLD |
| ANOMIA7 |
OFFICIALS NOT INTERESTED IN AVERAGE MAN |
| ATTEND |
HOW OFTEN R ATTENDS RELIGIOUS SERVICES |
| BRAZIL |
LIKING FOR BRAZIL |
| BUSING |
ATTITUDE TOWARD RACIAL BUSING |
| CANADA |
LIKING FOR CANADA |
| CHILDS |
NUMBER OF CHILDREN |
| CHINA |
LIKING FOR CHINA |
| CHLDIDEL |
IDEAL NUMBER OF CHILDREN |
| CLASS |
SUBJECTIVE CLASS IDENTIFICATION |
| COMMUN |
FEELINGS ABOUT COMMUNISM |
| COURTS |
COURTS DEALING WITH CRIMINALS |
| DENOM |
SPECIFIC DENOMINATION |
| DIVLAW |
DIVORCE LAWS |
| DOTDATA |
D.O.T. CODE - RELATION TO DATA |
| EARNRS |
HOW MANY IN FAMILY EARNED MONEY |
| EDUC |
HIGHEST YEAR OF SCHOOL COMPLETED |
| EGYPT |
LIKING FOR EGYPT |
| ENGLAND |
LIKING FOR ENGLAND |
| ETHNUM |
TYPE OF RESPONSE ABOUT ETHNICITY -- R |
| DIVORCE |
EVER BEEN DIVORCED OR SEPARATED |
| FAIR |
PEOPLE FAIR OR TRY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE |
| FEAR |
AFRAID TO WALK AT NIGHT IN NEIGHBORHOOD |
| FEHOME |
WOMEN TAKE CARE OF HOME NOT COUNTRY |
| FEPOL |
WOMEN NOT SUITED FOR POLITICS |
| FEPRES |
VOTE FOR WOMAN PRESIDENT |
| FEWORK |
SHOULD WOMEN WORK |
| FINALTER |
CHANGE IN FINANCIAL SITUATION |
| FINRELA |
OPINION OF FAMILY INCOME |
| GETAHEAD |
OPINION OF HOW PEOPLE GET AHEAD |
| GRASS |
SHOULD MARIJUANA BE MADE LEGAL |
| GUNLAW |
FAVOR OR OPPOSE GUN PERMITS |
| HAPMAR |
HAPPINESS OF MARRIAGE |
| HAPPY |
GENERAL HAPPINESS |
| HEALTH |
CONDITION OF HEALTH |
| HELPFUL |
PEOPLE HELPFUL OR LOOKING OUT FOR SELVES |
| HOMOSEX |
HOMOSEXUAL SEX RELATIONS |
| INCOME |
TOTAL FAMILY INCOME |
| INDUSTRY |
RS INDUSTRY CODE (1970) |
| ISRAEL |
LIKING FOR ISRAEL |
| JAPAN |
LIKING FOR JAPAN |
| JOBHOUR |
SHORT WORKING HOURS |
| JOBINC |
HIGH INCOME |
| JOBMEANS |
WORK IMPORTANT AND FEEL ACCOMPLISHMENT |
| JOBPROMO |
CHANCES FOR ADVANCEMENT |
| JOBSEC |
NO DANGER OF BEING FIRED |
| LIBATH |
ALLOW ANTI-RELIGIOUS BOOK IN LIBRARY |
| LIBCOM |
ALLOW COMMUNISTS BOOK IN LIBRARY |
| LIFE |
IS LIFE EXCITING OR DULL |
| MAEDUC |
"HIGHEST YEAR SCHOOL COMPLETED |
| MARITAL |
MARITAL STATUS |
| MAWORK |
MOTHERS EMPLOYMENT SINCE MARRIAGE |
| MOBILE16 |
GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY SINCE AGE 16 |
| NATAID |
FOREIGN AID |
| NATARMS |
"MILITARY |
| NATCITY |
SOLVING PROBLEMS OF BIG CITIES |
| NATCRIME |
HALTING RISING CRIME RATE |
| NATDRUG |
DEALING WITH DRUG ADDICTION |
| NATEDUC |
IMPROVING NATIONS EDUCATION SYSTEM |
| NATENVIR |
IMPROVING & PROTECTING ENVIRONMENT |
| NATFARE |
WELFARE |
| NATHEAL |
IMPROVING & PROTECTING NATIONS HEALTH |
| NATRACE |
IMPROVING THE CONDITIONS OF BLACKS |
| NATSPAC |
SPACE EXPLORATION PROGRAM |
| NEWS |
HOW OFTEN DOES R READ NEWSPAPER |